Texas Housing Market Strong

July 2, 2015 Elizabeth Alford

Housing markets in Texas remain strong remain strong despite an economic slump in the nation's energy capital, but some worry about the high prices for a few Eagle Ford residents.

The decline in oil prices over the last year has caused a slowdown in employment growth and some job cuts, but homes sales remain strong. In May 2015, there were 28,088 sales of existing single-family homes, 1.66% percent more than in May 2014.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said that home price increases in Texas are running at about twice national rates.

While increased home prices are a great thing for property owners, for many at the bottom of the wage pool, this represents a constant struggle to make ends meet.

“We need to tone down the price growth, because prices are rising too fast,” Yun said. “House prices nationally are now reaching back to 2006 levels,” before the recession.”

Residents in some Eagle Ford counties are among the most vulnerable. UTSA just announced they will be conducting a study of the impact of oil-and-gas exploration on the affordability and adequacy of housing in Dimmit, La Salle and Zavala counties. The study, funded by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, will also address how federal, county and local policies affect the availability of rental housing, affordable housing and housing options for vulnerable populations.

Texas continues to lead the nation in consumer confidence. The Texas region's consumer confidence index was 130.5 in May 2015, up 7.5 percent from April 2015 and compared to the national index of 95.4.

Texas Economic Index Down

April 13, 2015 Elizabeth Alford

Comerica Bank’s economic index showed a decrease in activity for the first three months of 2015. For January, the index was down to 106.3, a .9% decrease from December. Though this is the first three-month decline since June 2009, the index is still 34 points above the all-time low.

The report showed that five of the eight index components were down in January including exports, claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, rig count and hotel occupancy. Other markets such payroll employment, house prices and sales tax continued to show positives numbers.

The Texas Workforce Commission reported that the state added 7,100 jobs in February, including 6900 oil and gas jobs. This was the smallest monthly job gain since October 2011. Read more here.

Low crude oil prices and a decline in drilling activity are at the center of this economic slowdown.

“Obviously, the more than 50-percent drop in oil prices from mid-year 2014 to present is a significant drag on the Texas economy,” Dye said in a statement. “We know the payroll job growth for the state has slowed through February and the weekly rig count numbers have declined into March, so we expect to see more evidence of a downshift in the Texas economy in the months ahead.”

— Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Low Oil Prices and the Texas Economy

March 10, 2015 Elizabeth Alford

Since June 2014, the price of crude has dropped by over half, causing energy producers to tighten their belts, slash future budgets and reduce operating rig counts.

While this pricing environment has been good for consumers at the gasoline pump, it is predicted that several states will face a serious economic fallout from the drastic drop in prices.

As the largest oil producing state in the country, Texas surely will feel the effects. But, exactly how are low oil prices affecting the Texas economy? As it turns out, Texas may not be as vulnerable as first imagined.

“States that host large oil production operations but derive a modest share of revenue from oil production, like California, Colorado, and Texas, benefit from significant economic diversity and losses in oil revenue will likely be offset by boosts in consumer-driven tax revenue.”

— Analyst Robert Fitch (via Texas Monthly)

In Texas, oil and gas taxes are only 9 percent of the state's general fund, vastly lower than that of other energy states such as Alaska (79%) North Dakota (46%) and Wyoming (40%). The energy industry has always been a dominant force in Texas, but since a similar crisis in the 80s, we have worked to build a much more diverse economy that no longer relies solely on oil to thrive.

The following overview gives the latest statistics for how Texas compares to the rest of the country on some key economic indicators (updated 3/6/15).

Jobs

UNITED STATES: 257,000 nonfarm jobs added in January 2015 and the unemployment rate was 5.6%.
TEXAS: Nonfarm employment increased by 41,100 jobs during December 2014. During 2014 total nonfarm employment increased by 457,900 jobs or 3.886%t. Texas unemployment rate was 4.6% for December 2014, down from 6.0% in December 2013 and has been at or below the national rate for 96 consecutive months.

Confidence Index

The U.S. consumer confidence index was 96.4 in February 2015, down 7.1% from January 2015
The Texas region's consumer confidence index was 117.0 in February 2015, up 0.3% percent from January 2015, and 4.7 percent higher than one year ago.

Taxes

Sales tax collections in fiscal 2015 through January were 11.2% above collections for the same period in fiscal 2014.
Texas motor vehicle sales and rental tax collections for January 2015 were up 15.9% from January 2014

Low Crude Prices Not Good for All

January 5, 2015 Elizabeth Alford

Texas gasoline prices are averaging under $2.00, the lowest we have seen in years. While this was a nice perk for consumers over the holiday season, it is still unclear how cheaper crude will impact the overall health of the Texas economy.

One Washington think tank has estimated that, though many parts of the country will experience a slight economic stimulus in 2015, the lower oil prices will bring a significant downturn in the economic health of energy dependent states.

Unprecedented production in the United States shale plays have contributed to an increase in worldwide oil supplies, resulting in gasoline prices plummeting to their lowest level in almost five years. This has proven to be an economic boom of sorts to American families who are pocketing an additional $25-$75 per month. An additional perk will come as reduced fuel costs will eventually affect the pricing of consumer goods and services.

“The reduction in oil prices provides US consumers with what amounts to an annual increase in disposable income of $350 billion (about 2.0 percent of US GDP) through reduced prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, other petroleum products, and goods and services whose production uses petroleum products. The average US household will see a raw gain that amounts to $2,790 per year.”

— Stephen Brown with Resources for the Future

The economic picture is not so rosy for everyone. Energy producers and states that are heavily invested in oil production will take a hit in 2015. Some companies have announced they will slash their budgets, with many predicting cuts in their exploration efforts. This will have a ripple effect that will impact local economies and support industries as tax revenues are reduced and layoffs are inevitable.

And Texas is not immune. The New york Times reports that Hercules Offshore has plans to lay off some 300 employees. This is in addition to the already 2,300 oil and gas jobs lost in Texas from October - November.

Download the entire report from rff.com.