EIA: Eagle Ford Shale Expected to Hit 1.614-Million b/d in Nov. 2014

EIA Eagle Ford Production Chart - Nov. 2014
EIA Eagle Ford Production Chart - Nov. 2014

The Eagle Ford Shale is expected to produce 1.614-million b/d of oil in November, which is a 29% increase from the same time last year, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report. October's total production from the play is expected to be 1.579-million b/d.

Despite lower crude prices, EIA data shows gains in production across all major U.S. shale fields. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), only 4% of U.S. shale production needs prices above $80 for drillers to break even. On October 17th, WTI was trading at ~$82.

Eagle Ford operators continue the trend to be more efficient. EIA data shows new-well oil production per rig increasing from 532 b/d in October to 540 b/d in November.

Gains in the Bakken and Permian Basin

The Bakken Shale in North Dakota and Montana is expected to produce 1.193-million b/d of oil in November, up 22% from the same time last year, according to the EIA. October's total production from the play is expected to be 1.164-million b/d.

Production in West Texas' Permian Basin in October is expected to be 7.765-million b/d, and increase ~2% to 1,807-million b/d in November.

Texas and North Dakota, which encompasses the most active area of the Bakken, currently make up almost half of the nation's crude oil supply.

An Eagle Ford Rig Adds 400 Barrels of Oil Production Per Month

Eagle Ford Production Added by Rig
Eagle Ford Production Added by Rig

The EIA published it’s first “Drilling Productivity Report” for six major producing regions in the U.S. earlier in the week.

The EIA found the Eagle Ford and the Bakken account for approximately 75% of oil production growth in the U.S. each month.

Highlights from the Eagle Ford include:

  • The average rig drilling in the area adds ~400 b/d of oil production each month and just over 1 mmcfd.
  • The EIA also shows the play is producing more than 1 million b/d of oil (likely includes more than just Eagle Ford "oil" production).
EIA New Eagle Ford Production and Legacy Declines
EIA New Eagle Ford Production and Legacy Declines
EIA Eagle Ford Oil Graph
EIA Eagle Ford Oil Graph

Quick observation - I didn't read through the complete methodology, but I assume the EIA is looking at the entire area and making estimates for Eagle Ford production. They are the first to show "oil" production from the play at more than 1 million b/d. My guess is the number includes condensate and possibly other liquids.

Also, I find it interesting the group has the ability to predict the average Eagle Ford rig added 396 b/d in October and will add 404 b/d in November. The state is just now beginning to report August production figures.

Read the full report at www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling