WoodMac: Eagle Ford to Hit Two-Million b/d Mark by 2020

Eagle Ford Shale Well Map
Eagle Ford Shale Well Map

According to the oil and gas research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, the Eagle Ford will reach two-million b/d of crude and condensate production by 2020. Compared to the next most significant liquids-rich shale play in the U.S., the Bakken Shale, in North Dakota, the Eagle Ford is expected to produce 16% more crude and condensate production during the same year combined.

The Eagle Ford Shale is really on a roll. In June of 2014, analysts at the Bentek Energy Benposium Conference, in Houston, TX, said the Eagle Ford had the highest internal rate of return (IRR) among all other U.S. Shale plays. According to Bentek Energy Senior Analyst Catherine Bernardo, the Eagle Ford is sitting at just over 70% IRR.

Read moreEagle Ford Rate of Return Higher than Other U.S. Shale Plays

Potential for Eagle Ford Production Constraints

Currently, there aren't  any production constraints in the Eagle Ford. That's due to a number of factors, but namely an already existing midstream infrastructure in Texas, the completion of multiple midstream projects since the boom began and the Gulf Coast refining markets ramping up to accommodate Eagle Ford production.

At Benposium, analysts predicted the Eagle Ford market would not see a lot of production constraints near the end of the decade; however that could change if Eagle Ford production reaches a certain threshold.

If the Eagle Ford reaches two-million b/d by 2019, there would be production constraints in the play.
— Bentek Energy Sr. Analyst, Erika Coombs

Should Eagle Ford production reach two-million b/d of crude and condensate production by 2020, that means industry players essentially have a one-year pad to accommodate for the anticipated increase.

Eagle Ford Oil Production Growing Twice As Fast As Thought - Bentek

Eagle Ford Oil Production Forecasts
Eagle Ford Oil Production Forecasts

Eagle Ford crude oil production has grown twice as fast as anyone thought just two years ago. That was the message delivered at day 2 of Bentek's annual Benposium.

Rusty Braziel, founder of RBN Energy, compared the company's forecast from two years ago to what the company expects today. What was predicted as production for 2016 in 2011 has already been eclipsed! In 2011, Bentek expected Eagle Ford oil production would eclipse 800,000 b/d sometime in 2016.

Well, the play eclipsed 800,000 b/d sometime at the end of 2012 and is now expected to produce more than 1.4 million b/d by 2016. How's that for impressive production growth.

Other highlights from the conference included:

  • The average Eagle Ford well drilling time is estimated at 20 days - Down from 38 in 2010
  • Some Eagle Ford crude will have to be moved by water - Gulf Coast demand will not be enough

Bentek's annual Benposium conference is held in Houston each Spring.