Eagle Ford Headed for Big Losses

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Analysts are predicting that the Eagle Ford will lead the pack for huge losses in early 2016.

Related: Eagle Ford Shale Year in Review 2015

New numbers released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate that volumes from the seven major shale regions in the U.S. will drop by 116,000 barrels a day in February. That’s more oil than OPEC's Ecuador or Libya produced last year on average.

The Eagle Ford Shale Play is predicted to take the biggest hit of all the shale plays and is expected to drop 72,000 barrels a day to 1.15 million, according to the EIA. The Bakken in North Dakota losing 24,000 barrels to 1.1 million.

The current rate of decline in the Eagle Ford is hovering between upper 6% and nearly 12% per month (72% to 144% per year).

The devastation of shale industry is making news. In the video clip below, CNBC reports that more than half of U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt before the crude market reaches equilibrium.

Daniel Jones, an investment manager at Avaring Capital Advisors, LLC, says that his research suggests the output could fall by as much as 1 million barrels per day in the Eagle Ford this year.

Right now, many investors seem to be bearish regarding oil but I have a hard time understanding why. Yes, we do have a large global oil glut (though it’s small as a percent of overall inventories) but production should continue declining throughout most regions during 2016 if prices don’t rise materially. The key player in determining how much we produce over the next 12 months is, undeniably, the Eagle Ford but even fairly conservative assumptions seem to indicate that production will likely drop much lower than where it is today. If that’s not bullish, I don’t know what is.