Valero's CEO says Eagle Ford "crude" production will likely surpass 500,000 b/d by year-end 2012. He went on to say producers have told him that production will likely reach 1 million b/d in the next few years and will back out sweet crude imports from other countries. The industry is getting more confident that 1 million b/d of Eagle Ford production will be here sooner than later. The projection for 500,000 b/d of crude by year-end comes just a week after the EIA projected production of 500,000 b/d of crude and condensate in April. From speaking with industry professionals, I'm confident the EIA's numbers were higher than actual production and might have included NGLs. Either way, we're on a quick path to half a million barrels per day. I'm digging a little deeper and will have more for you in the coming weeks.
The EIA provides a great service, but I trust Valero's projections as they are one of the largest crude buyers in the world. It's their business to know what is going to feed their refineries.